Recently, the scientific community has been reporting the disappearance of honeybees (Apis mellifera). The impact of this population decrease is discussed here with a focus on the production and pricing of different varieties of vegetables, fruits, nuts and of course, honey.
Honeybees are a plant's natural ally in the pollination of almost all the fruits and vegetables we eat. Indeed, one-third of our normal diet, almost the whole sector depends exclusively on bee pollinators to produce the fruits and vegetables we consume.
Everything from olives to corn, apples, tomatoes, peaches, berries of all kinds, almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, melons, apricots, bananas, mangoes, papayas, and so on, depend on the little worker bee carrying pollen from flower to flower to allow the creation of the fruit (seed) we so readily enjoy.
In recent weeks, Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) has become a major topic in both the scientific community and the mainstream media, though it remains a mystery. Normally, when beehives are abandoned, the queen bee is carried away to begin a new colony, but in this case, the queen and some bees remain behind. The disappearing bees are not establishing other colonies, nor do they seem to be dying of disease near the hives or elsewhere.
Therein lies the great mystery. Where are they going? It is leaving scientists baffled from Taiwan to Turkey, and Brazil to Canada. Most of Western Europe, 29 US states, some Canadian provinces, and other spots around the globe are being affected at the same time, in the same manner. With strange circumstances; one hive will have major loss, while a hive just down the road remains intact and healthy, while wild bees are also being impacted too.
Hives are losing up to 70 percent of their populations, making them ineffective as the symbiotic partners that plants depend upon to fruit or seed. This will result in highly significant losses of the crops produced from these plants.
The economic impact of this will be enormous and food prices will be extensively increased in the coming seasons. Entire regional economies will be very hard hit and we may well see complete elimination of production of some products within as little as one year. This is the most significant threat to the human food supply in recorded history.
Even our beef and milk supply will be affected as cows eat alfalfa which is pollinated by wild bees. Without sufficient food to produce milk, our supplies of dairy products will also be affected and the beef supply will be hurt. Pork and poultry too, because pigs, chickens and turkeys are fed corn.
For example, the State of Washington is one of the leading producers of apples sold fresh, or prepared into other products like apple juice, ciders and applesauce. It is estimated that more than 60 percent of Washington's agriculture base depends on apple production, but without bees to pollinate the trees when they flower (a very short period), the trees will not produce fruit sufficiently to create a viable crop yield. Considering that Washinton's hand picked crop employs tens of thousands of workers, and produces apples sold in all 50 states and 40 countries, the impact there could create serious economic problems. More than half of all apples sold in the US come from Washington State. The same applies to Florida with citrus and tomatoes, California with grapes, olives, strawberries, tomatoes and so on.
Without production capabilities, entire farming infrastructures will collapse and with them, regional economic depressions may occur until alternative economic solutions are found. Correlating to this, humans may have to become accustomed to a diet without key natural vitamins found in the fruits and vegetables that will be fundamentally gone from the normal diet.
Will all crops disappear?
Not likely, but the cost of production will increase, quality will reduce and the dramatic increase in prices we mentioned. We could pay, for example, more than $20 for a liter of orange juice and find extremely limited supplies only for short times of the year. Replacement imports will not be a viable alternative because the problem is happening around the world.
In the case of oranges, they are generally produced in Florida, California, Spain and north Africa. All of these regions are being affected by this problem, so crop production cannot be shifted.
"This crisis threatens to wipe out production of crops dependent on bees for pollination," Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said in a statement.
Fruits and vegetables will not be the only things affected. Soybeans, a staple of food production and oils will be hurt by this problem. The cut flower industry will significantly suffer as well. Florists will soon find it very hard to find quality roses, lilies and so on to sell causing an economic slump in that industry as well. Businesses dependent on honeybee interaction will very quickly discover that they are in serious trouble with no alternatives.
Ethanol, the fuel alternative and additive to gasoline is made from crops pollinated by bees. Without ethanol, fossil fuel pollutants could rise to 1970's levels in rapid scale.
It is estimated that we will have less than four years to find a solution to the bee disappearance problem and simultaneously find and develop alternatives to the crop productions we will lose in that time.
For the foodservice industry, both in commercial food production and hospitality (catering, restaurants, fast-food) the implications are extremely serious. Prices at wholesale levels should begin to rise in the next few months as crop yields reduce. Market speculation will take hold and price gouging should be anticipated. Supply chain management must begin now for companies dependent upon products that will be affected by reduced bee populations. You simply may not be able to get tomatoes or pickles on your burger anymore in a matter of months, if not years.
Products will change too. We will not see such things as berries and fruit in cereals and yogurts, for example, forcing companies like Dannon and General Mills to alter their product lines to grain-only cereals.
New crop production areas may have to be found that are not affected and alternative food production systems may have to be developed that are not dependent on honeybees.
What's causing the disappearance?
Frankly, scientists remain confused on this with many viable and some ridiculous hypotheses being studied. In conducing interviews for this article, we've heard about aliens, plagues of locusts, cell phone towers and even an al Qaeda plot. Even though there have been large scale bee die-offs before, this one is unprecedented in so many ways, including the speed, volume and lack of dead bees or natural predators.
We have our own idea, based on the fact that this is happening internationally and the fact that dead bees are not being found. Our impression is that the bees are somehow being affected by the Earth's magnetic field or that a disease is affecting the bees ability to read the magnetic field they depend upon for navigation. It is possible the bees are flying to atmospheric heights where they freeze, die and fall back to Earth, disintegrating as they fall from wind sheer. This would explain the lack of bodies.
This hypothesis is presently in discussion with Dr. Jeff Pettis of the USDA Agriculture Research Service, Dr. Thomas Allen of Georgia State University Department of Astronomy, Dr. Alan Linde of the Department of Terrestrial Magnetism at the Carnegie Institution in Washington, DC and Dr. May Berenbaum of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Entomology, a leading expert in apiary science. We hope to soon report on their findings.
It is hoped that by finding the cause, a solution can be found to protect existing bee populations and allow them to replenish, naturally. There is no viable alternative to plant pollination and honey can only be produced by bees. Though wasps and other flying insects do pollinate flowers, it not in sufficient volume to match the work that honeybees do.
In terms of price increases, this has yet to produce signficant impact on upcoming seasonal crop yields. When it does, we may expect wild speculation and the governments may have to step in to regulate prices for food products around the world and to prevent economic panic.
Can any good come of this?
Other than scientific understanding of our natural world... No.
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Notes: Research for this article was conducted by Dr. Robert Angelone, Chairman of The Epicurus Group, a specialist in Agronomics, supply chain management and the restaurant industry.
